Dangerous Assumptions

Emission reduction assumptions for carbon dioxide overly optimistic, study says

Reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) over the coming century will be more challenging than society has been led to believe, according to a research commentary appearing this week in the journal Nature.

The authors, from the University of Colorado at Boulder, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, and McGill University in Montreal, said the technological challenges of reducing CO2 emissions have been significantly underestimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The study concludes the IPCC is overly optimistic in assuming that, even without action by policymakers, new technologies that will result in dramatic reductions in the growth of future emissions will be developed and implemented.

Titled "Dangerous Assumptions," the Nature commentary is co-authored by scientists Roger Pielke, Jr., of CU-Boulder, Tom Wigley of NCAR and economist Christopher Green of McGill University. "This welcome commentary is an indication that the science policy discussions have shifted from 'is there global warming"' to 'how does society respond"'" said Cliff Jacobs of the National Science Foundation (NSF)'s Division of Atmospheric Sciences, which funds NCAR.

"In the end, there is no question whether technological innovation is necessary--it is," write the authors. "The question is, to what degree should policy focus explicitly on motivating such innovation"" MORE